The Journal of Intellectual Property (J Intellect Property; JIP)

KCI Indexed
OPEN ACCESS, PEER REVIEWED

pISSN 1975-5945
eISSN 2733-8487

Prediction of Industrial Property Rights Applications using Vector Autoregressive Model

CONTENTS

Research article

Citation: Jang B, Kim H. 2024. Prediction of Industrial Property Rights Applications using Vector Autoregressive Model. The Journal of Intellectual Property 19(2), 143-160.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.34122/jip.2024.19.2.7

The Journal of Intellectual Property, 2024 June, 19(2): 143-160. 

Received on 28 March 2024, Revised on 12 May 2024, Accepted on 29 May 2024, Published on 30 June 2024.

Prediction of Industrial Property Rights Applications using Vector Autoregressive Model

Byeongdeuk Jang1, Hyukjoon Kim2

1Associate Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Intellectual Property, Republic of Korea

2Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Intellectual Property, Republic of Korea

*Corresponding Author: Hyukjoon Kim (h.kim@kiip.re.kr)

Abstract

This study predicts the volume of industrial property applications using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model that incorporates macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, R&D, inflation, and interest rates. By experimenting with multiple variable combinations, 24 VAR models were derived, and the optimal model with the smallest prediction error was selected based on the forecast accuracy measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Using this optimal VAR model, we forecast industrial property applications for the next ten years (2023-2032). The results indicate that industrial property applications are projected to increase annually by 5.01%, with patents increasing by 3.61%, utility models decreasing by 3.29%, designs increasing by 0.72%, and trademarks increasing by 1.96%.

Keywords

vector autoregressive model, time series analysis, patent, design, trademark, prediction

Funding

The author received manuscript fees for this article from Korea Institute of Intellectual Property.

Conflicts of interest

No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.