Byeongdeuk Jang1, Hyukjoon Kim2
1Associate Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Intellectual Property, Republic of Korea
2Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Intellectual Property, Republic of Korea
Correspondence to Hyukjoon Kim, E-mail: h.kim@kiip.re.kr
Volume 19, Number 2, Pages 143-160, June 2024.
Journal of Intellectual Property 2024;19(2):143-160. https://doi.org/10.34122/jip.2024.19.2.7
Received on March 28, 2024, Revised on May 12, 2024, Accepted on May 29, 2024, Published on June 30, 2024.
Copyright © 2024 Korea Institute of Intellectual Property.
This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/) which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided that the article is properly cited, the use is non-commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.
This study predicts the volume of industrial property applications using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model that incorporates macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, R&D, inflation, and interest rates. By experimenting with multiple variable combinations, 24 VAR models were derived, and the optimal model with the smallest prediction error was selected based on the forecast accuracy measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Using this optimal VAR model, we forecast industrial property applications for the next ten years (2023-2032). The results indicate that industrial property applications are projected to increase annually by 5.01%, with patents increasing by 3.61%, utility models decreasing by 3.29%, designs increasing by 0.72%, and trademarks increasing by 1.96%.
vector autoregressive model, time series analysis, patent, design, trademark, prediction
No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.
The author received manuscript fees for this article from Korea Institute of Intellectual Property.