Citation: Jang B, Kim H. 2024. Prediction of Industrial Property Rights Applications using Vector Autoregressive Model. The Journal of Intellectual Property 19(2), 143-160.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34122/jip.2024.19.2.7
The Journal of Intellectual Property, 2024 June, 19(2): 143-160.
Received on 28 March 2024, Revised on 12 May 2024, Accepted on 29 May 2024, Published on 30 June 2024.
1Associate Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Intellectual Property, Republic of Korea
2Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Intellectual Property, Republic of Korea
*Corresponding Author: Hyukjoon Kim (h.kim@kiip.re.kr)
This study predicts the volume of industrial property applications using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model that incorporates macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, R&D, inflation, and interest rates. By experimenting with multiple variable combinations, 24 VAR models were derived, and the optimal model with the smallest prediction error was selected based on the forecast accuracy measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Using this optimal VAR model, we forecast industrial property applications for the next ten years (2023-2032). The results indicate that industrial property applications are projected to increase annually by 5.01%, with patents increasing by 3.61%, utility models decreasing by 3.29%, designs increasing by 0.72%, and trademarks increasing by 1.96%.
vector autoregressive model, time series analysis, patent, design, trademark, prediction
The author received manuscript fees for this article from Korea Institute of Intellectual Property.
No potential conflict of interest relevant to this article was reported.